Drought Severity and it's implications on water resources in the Aswa River Basin

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dc.contributor.authorAbalo Solome
dc.date.accessioned2026-10-12T10:10:33Z
dc.date.available2026-10-12T10:10:33Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.description.abstractThis study aimed to determine drought severity for the historical period using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ; to predict drought severity for the future periods up to the year 2100 using climate models and downscaled data for the River Aswa Basin ; and to establish a quantitative relationship between drought severity and water resources in the basin using hydrological modeling and statistical analysis. The study area was the Aswa River Basin, covering 15 districts in Central North Eastern Uganda. The catchment , spanning approximately 25,443km², is situated between 32.2° E to 34.25 ° E and 2.05° N to 3.8° N.The study revealed frequent and spatially variable drought occurrences, with Abim and Kotido having the highest severe drought frequency at 35% and 30% respectively.Gulu (73%) ,Amuria (72%) and Kitgum (66%) experienced mainly moderate droughts while extreme drought events were most frequent in Lira (18%) ,followed by Amuria 12% ,kitgum (12%) and Kotido (7%). The findings underscore persistent water stress in semi- arid northeastern areas, threatening agricultural productivity and the reliability of water resources. The study further established a significant relationship between short-term to medium- term precipitation anomalies ( SPI-3 and SPI- 6) and streamflow in the basin is highly sensitive to seasonal rainfall, emphasizing the need for sub-annual monitoring of water resource variability and drought forcasting.Future projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate increasing drought severity, frequency, and duration, particularly in Kitgum and Lira.Gulu and Abim showed relatively lower vulnerability. These projections highlight the urgency for localized climate adaptation, strategies to mitigate the escalating impacts of climate change on water security and livelihoods in northern Uganda's River Aswa Basin. The study recommends that authorities integrate SPI-3 and SPI -6 into early warning systems,invest in in- situ water resources monitoring infrastructure, and adopt location-specific adaptation strategies.Promote drought- resilient agriculture, small- scale water storage, abd enforce sustainable water use.Climate risk assessments must guide planning.Strengthen institutional and technical capacities, improve monitoring and collection of local climate data, and engage in regional cooperation to manage shared water resources and reduce the risk of lower water resources - related conflicts.
dc.description.sponsorshipSelf
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14270/977
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherGulu University
dc.titleDrought Severity and it's implications on water resources in the Aswa River Basin
dc.typeThesis

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