Research Articles

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Relevance of Indigenous Knowledge in Sustainable Management of Forest Resources in the 21st Century Uganda
(EAST AFRICAN NATURE & SCIENCE ORGANIZATION, 2023-09-04) Alule,Jimmy Rhombe; Nuwategeka,Expedito; Oriangi,George; Lajul,Wilfred
Sub-Saharan Africa is endowed with indigenous knowledge systems and natural forest resources critical to supporting several forms of development. However, the region has experienced rapid population growth and demographic changes, which may lead to a decline in forest resources. Sustainable management of these resources is critical for a healthy forest ecosystem that should continue to provide goods and services to the present and future generations. Of the variety of management strategies employed in the sustainable management of forest resources, indigenous knowledge provides a plausible alternative. To ascertain the relevance of this knowledge, the Lugbara community in Yumbe district, northwestern Uganda, was considered. Data were collected from 371 respondents using questionnaires and 19 key informants using interviews; others included participatory GIS and remote sensing. Data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, thematic and content analysis, and a forest cover change matrix. The results indicated a highly significant correlation between IK availability and usefulness of 0.703 at 0.01 level, and the socioeconomic and demographic variables tested statistically significant with sub-county of origin alone accounting for 11.7% of the variations in utilisation of IK in forest management. Indigenous knowledge was mostly used in the management of community forest resources, while modern scientific approaches were used in managing public forests. The forest resources were not sustainably managed despite the relatively high prevalence of IK. The linear model summary results were marginally significant, indicating that the prevalence of IK accounted for only approximately six% (R2 = .059) of the variations in SMFR. However, there was a resurrected interest in the use of IK since some forests managed using strict customary laws were the most biologically diverse. The resurrected interest implies that the IK remains relevant in the 21st century. The study therefore, recommends that IK practises be documented, promoted, and integrated into modern formal approaches to achieve SMFR.
Spatial and Temporal Variation in Climate Trends in the Kyoga Plains of Uganda: Analysis of Meteorological Data and Farmers’ Perception
(Scientific Research Publishing, 2020-01-15) Chombo,Oketcho; Lwasa,Shuaib; Tenywa,Moses
With global warming now a certainty, it’s important to investigate climate change elements at the local level so as to enable stake holders adapt in order to sustain their livelihoods. This study investigated local climate changes, farmers’ perception of the changes and factors affecting perception to climatechange in the Kyoga plains of Uganda. Monthly maximum temperature,minimum temperature and total rainfall from four meteorological stations within the study area for period 1984-2014 were obtained to analyse seasonal, annual and decadal trends in rainfall and temperature while a survey based on 384 randomly selected farmers was carried out to investigate the perception of variation in climate change trends among small holder farmers of different socioeconomic characteristics across the Kyoga plains. Multi stage random sampling was applied in the selection of the population sample. Non parametric analysis (Mann Kendall test) was used for analyzing trends and testing significance. In the survey, farmers were asked their observations about the local climate using structured questionnaires and these were analysed using descriptive statics. Logistics regression was then used to identify the factors that determined the perceptions of farmers on climate change.Overall, trends in monthly temperature are increasing over the years but not significantly while rainfall is decreasing but equally not significantly. Seasonal and decadal temperature had significant positive trends at different stations and sub zones over the years. 67% of the farmers realised a decrease in rainfall while 56.8% perceived an increase in temperature across the agroecological zone. 56.3% perceived declining rainfall and 52% realized increasing temperature in the southern sub zone while 42% realised a decrease in rainfall and 40.6%, an increase in temperature in the northern sub zone. Belonging to a group and age has significant positive effect on farmers’ perception of climate while farming experience and access to extension workers had a significant negative effect. The results suggest the need for strengthening networking among farmers for peer learning and support and location specific intervention measures to improve perception and adaptation to climate for each of the sub zones.
Spatial Differentiation of Small Holder Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Kyoga Plains of Uganda
(Scientific Research Publishing, 2018-12-14) Chombo,Oketcho; Lwasa,Shuaib; Tenywa,Moses
The paper assessed the variation in the level of vulnerability to climate change among small holder farmers in the Kyoga plains of Uganda. It was hypothesized that there is no spatial variation in the level of vulnerability to climate change among the small holder farmers of different socioeconomic characteristics in the Kyoga plains. It improves the understanding of the different dimensions of vulnerability. This can help to design practical policies and intervention strategies that are specific to the communities’ spatial strata to reduce development imbalances and empower the most vulnerable small holder farmers. The conceptual framework is based on the three elements of vulnerability that is, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The cross-sectional survey research design was used to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. Household data were acquired by using a structured questionnaire supported by focussed group discussions while meteorological data were collected using data base review. The study was done in the Kyoga plains agro ecological zone of Uganda comprising of several districts out of which Tororo and Pallisa were picked. Indicators for the components of vulnerability(Exposure,Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity) were selected by Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Vulnerability Indices constructed at household level then aggregated at sub county level for correlation using ANOVA. Inter sub county vulnerability index correlation revealed a spatial variation in the level of vulnerability between the different sub counties with Kasodo Sub County in Pallisa being the most vulnerable and Rubongi in Tororo being the least vulnerable. Policy measures and development efforts should therefore focus on place specific strategies of adapting to climate change rather nationwide or region wide strategies. There is also need to refocus policy to nonfarm activities which are less susceptible to climate change and enhance farmers’ income.
Household resilience to climate change hazards in Uganda
(International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 2019-10-11) Oriangi, George; Albrecht,Frederike; Baldassarre,Giuliano Di; Bamutaze,Yazidhi; Mukwaya,Paul Isolo; Ardo,Jonas; Pilesjo Petter
Purpose – As climate change shocks and stresses increasingly affect urban areas in developing countries, resilience is imperative for the purposes of preparation, recovery and adaptation. This study aims to investigate demographic characteristics and social networks that influence the household capacity to prepare, recover and adapt when faced with prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events in Mbale municipality in Eastern Uganda. Design/methodology/approach – A cross-sectional research design was used to elicit subjective opinions. Previous studies indicate the importance of subjective approaches for measuring social resilience but their use has not been well explored in the context of quantifying urban resilience to climate change shocks and stresses. This study uses 389 structured household interviews to capture demographic characteristics, social networks and resilience capacities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for analysis. Findings – The ability of low-income households to meet their daily expenditure needs, household size, and networks with relatives and non government organizations (NGOs) were significant determinants of preparedness, recovery and adaptation to prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events. Practical implications – The results imply that policymakers and practitioners have an important rolevis-à-vis encouraging activities that boost the ability of households to meet their daily expenditure needs, promoting small household size and reinforcing social networks that enhance household resilience.
Testing the Proposed Municipality Resilience Index to Climate Change Shocks and Stresses in Mbale Municipality in Eastern Uganda
(scientific Research Publishing, 2019-12-04) Oriangi,George,; Bamutaze,Yazidhi,; Mukwaya,Paul Isolo,; Musali,Pual,; Baldassarre,Giuliano Di,; Pilesjo,Petter,
Since climate change shocks and stresses cannot be fully prevented, building resilient urban areas is gaining more attention in the global community. By building resilience, the negative impacts of climate change shocks and stresses can be alleviated. Several indices have been developed to measure urban resilience. Yet, most of these indices focus more on objective methods which require robust bio-physical and socioeconomic data sets which are generally lacking in many developing countries. To reduce this challenge, the use subjective methods has recently been suggested. This study proposed and tested a Municipality Resilience Index (MRI) which employed a subjective method to assess the resilience of Mbale municipality in Eastern Uganda against climate change shocks and stresses. The proposed MRI includes 46 variables describing the physical, social, economic and institutional dimensions. The MRI can be applied in any municipality in developing countries facing climate related shocks and stresses and with limited survey data. The application of this index to Mbale municipality shows that the municipality has a low resilience index of 0.2. Similarly, most variables in the four dimensions of resilience reflected very low resilience scores with other divisions being more resilient than the others. Furthermore, the social dimension has the lowest score as compared to the physical, economic and institutional dimensions. The findings indicate a spatial variability in the contribution of the resilience dimensions within this small geographic confine. Moreover, the findings show the strengths and weaknesses in the different dimensions of the proposed MRI. This can act as a guide for policy and practitioners on which sectors to target in order to enhance the resilience of Mbale municipality.
Characterisation of Forest Resources and the Local Communities for the Choice of Sustainable Forest Management Strategies in Uganda
(EAST AFRICAN NATURE & SCIENCE ORGANIZATION, 2023-07-09) Alule,Jimmy Rhombe,; Nuwategeka,Expedito,; Oriangi, George,
The decline in natural forest resources in the tropics due to ineffective management practices has reached unprecedented levels with the most affected forests being in developing countries. Efforts to manage these resources sustainably have proven futile. Understanding the nature and status of the forest resources and the communities is crucial for devising effective management strategies. The study was designed to characterise forest resources and the local communities to aid in the choice of effective management strategies for forest resources. The study was conducted in Yumbe district, northwestern Uganda, using a cross-sectional research design. It targeted communities living in the sub-counties of Kei, Kerwa, and Midigo. Data were collected using questionnaires, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, participant observations, and remote sensing. Pearson correlation and regression were used to analyse quantitative data, while thematic analysis was used to analyse qualitative data. The correlation p-values (Sig.) of less than .05 were statistically significant, implying a strong relationship between socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households and the choice of forest management strategies. The results further showed that the local communities were poor, illiterate, and dependent on subsistence farming and forest resources. The forest resources both in public and communal lands were in a state of serious decline. They were non-timber-based, accessible to the local community and dominated by woodland and other grassland mosaics. The local community used sustainable management practices, such as selective harvesting, tree planting, and gazetting some sites as sacred places. The management strategies used were forest type-specific, e.g., traditional for community forests and modern for public forests. The most important factor influencing the choice of management strategy was the level of education with an R Square value of .112. The study, therefore, recommends an improvement in the education of the local communities and the integration of local skills and practices to promote community-based approaches in sustainable forest resource management.
Perceptions of resilience to climate-induced disasters in Mbale municipality in Uganda
(Taylor and francis group, 2020-01-29) Oriangi,George; Albrecht,Frederike; Bamutaze,Yazidhi; Mukwaya,Paul Isolo; Nakileza,Bob; Pilesjo,Petter
Resilience has been raised as a core task within disaster risk reduction frameworks, yet it remains difficult to implement these global ideas in local communities. This study used Community Based Resilience Analysis Approach to investigate the components that are perceived as important in resilience and the extent to which these components have been achieved. It explored the trend of resilience and beneficial interventions for building resilience as perceived by interviewed participants in Mbale Municipality in Eastern Uganda. The study results indicate that access to education, healthcare, employment, peace and security were the most important components of resilience. Respondents perceived to have progressed in accessing credit, building productive farms and sustaining peace and security byJuly 2017. However, they assessed a lack of diverse income-generating activities, access to insurance, food security,employment and health care. Moreover, the study showed that respondents from marginalised parts of the municipality experienced decreasing resilience while respondents in other divisions had increased resilience. These results provide context-specific components of resilience by the local people. This can inform the formulation of resilience indices and bear relevance for policy-makers and practitioners to understand areas to invest more resources to achieve resilience.
The Relationship between Entry Grades of Students Admitted to Public Universities in Uganda under Direct Entry Schemes and Their Academic Performance: Implications for Admission Policies
(East African Journal of Education Studies, 2023-04-21) Aciro,Rosalba; Oriangi,George; Onen,David; Malinga, Geoffrey; Ezati,Betty.A; Openjuru,George.L
Although studies on relationships between entry qualification and academic performance show that students who excelled academically in entry qualification often perform better than those with low entry qualification in subsequent examinations, this argument has been questioned. This study explored the relationship between entry grades of undergraduate students and academic performance in public universities in Uganda in the first and final years of their studies. A retrospective cohort analysis of data for undergraduate students of Gulu and Makerere Universities using a sample of 2825 academic records from 2013- 2016 was conducted. Descriptive statistics and Pearson correlation analysis wereused for analysis. Results revealed a significant relationship between entry scores and students’ academic performance for those admitted on national merit, district quota, affirmative action schemes and private sponsorship schemes in four university programs. However, there was no significant correlation between entry scores and students’ academic performance in the Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery programs. Although male students joined with lower grades than females, their performance in the final year was better than their female counterparts. Therefore, this study confirms that the entry qualification score predicts academic outcomes in the early and exit stages of the university. These findings support the current Government entry criteria for public universities, provide important information for the admission committee decisions, and may have implications for admission policies. However, the lack of a significant correlation between entry qualification scores and students’ academic performance in Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery could indicate the need to revisit admissions criteria for this program. Future studies should go beyond the commonly used GPA to measure academic performance by including noncognitive factors such as practical skills, clinical skills, and professionalism. Furthermore, the role of background and sociodemographic factors in influencing
Factors Influencing Public University’s Role in Community Transformation
(EAST AFRICAN NATURE & SCIENCE ORGANIZATION, 2024-07-17) Adebua Asaf,; Oriangi George,; Edekebon Elaijah,; Ezati Akullu Betty,; Amone Charles,
Paucity of knowledge exists on the factors that influence the capacity of universities to transform communities, particularly in the Ugandan context. This study examined the internal factors that influence the capacity of Gulu University to contribute to community transformation in Gulu City in Northern Uganda. A cross-sectional study design was used while employing self-administered questionnaire to sample 390 households. Logistic regression model was used to evaluate the influence of internal factors on Gulu University’s role in transforming the surrounding communities. Findings revealed that scholarships by the university (p=.000), enterprises developed within the community through Gulu University’s engagement (p=.007), religious meetings for spiritual transformation (p=.036), and the teaching done at the university (p=.045) had a statistically significant influence on the university’s role in transforming the surrounding community in Gulu city. The study concludes that universities, the central government, and other stakeholders need to focus more on scholarships for further education, enterprise development, supporting the church, and teaching in the university to realise multiplied transformation of the surrounding communities.
Farmers Coping and Adaptation Mechanisms to PerceivedChangesandVariability in Climate
(East African Journal of Environment andNatural Resources, 2024-08-28) Oriangi,George; Edekebon,Elaijah; Ologe,Daniel Ochieng; Bamutaze,Yazidhi
There is a growing global concern about the detrimental effects of climatechange and variations on rain-fed agriculture. This study determinedhouseholds’ perceptions of changes and variations in climate and institutional roles in farmers' coping and adaptation mechanisms to changes and variationsin climate in Paicho Sub County (S/C), Gulu district in Northern Uganda. Datawas collected through structured household interviews and analyzedusingregression analysis and descriptive statistics. Findings showed that respondentsperceived rainfall and temperature to be the climatic parameters that hadchanged most with rainfall onset largely unpredictable. The major copingmechanisms to changes and variations in climate included: buying foodfromthe market, exchange of labor for food, and getting food help fromrelatives, community, and food agencies while, the major adaptation mechanismsincluded: getting jobs outside agriculture, adjustment of plantingdates, diversification of production, carrying out mixed cropping, and growingimproved crop and animal varieties. Additionally, the gender (P<0.05), thesizeof the land (P<0.05), and the age of the household head (P<0.05) were foundtobe the mostsignificant factorsinfluencing adaptation mechanisms. Furthermore, the role of existing institutions in community adaptation to changes andvariations in climate included: making decisions on planting time, providingaccess to information relevant to coping and adaptation, providing access tocredit, governing entitlements, and capacity building. In conclusion, thereisaneed for better and new crop varieties that can survive under changed andvariedclimatic conditions, and a need for more enhanced adaptation mechanisms.
Community Perceptions on the Contributions of Public Universities to Community Transformation
(EAST AFRICAN NATURE & SCIENCE ORGANIZATION, 2024-08-06) Adebua,Asaf,; Ologe,Daniel Ochieng,; Edekebon,Elaijah,; Oriangi,George,; Ezati, Akullu Betty,; Amone, Charles,
Much as the role of higher education has been recognised for promoting development globally, communities surrounding universities in Sub-Saharan Africa are still grappling with poor quality health, low income, poor housing, unreliable electricity and other social amenities. This study determined community perceptions of the contributions of Gulu University to communitytransformation in post-conflict northern Uganda. A cross-sectional study design was employed to collect data while using researcher-administered questionnaires and geospatial techniques. Questionnaire data was analysed using principal component analysis, and descriptive statistics while geospatial data was analysed using buffers, spatial join tool, and overlay analysis in GISenvironment. Findings revealed that the economic, political, spiritual and physical dimensions were important in explaining the transformation of communities surrounding Gulu University. The community surrounding Gulu University is perceived to have progressed well in terms of savings, business, commercial farming, and civil service; consumption of more than 3 meals per day, access to credit and remittances; easy access to health care, and quality education. The majority of the population can make free and independent decisions, are good at self-expression, exercise love for one another, enjoy living with community members, are at peace with one another, exercise kindness, waste is properly managed, and there is good access to water. However, there is slow progress in having alternative sources of income, onlya few community members perceived: their level of education to have improved, participate in leadership and are taking part in politics. There is also a scarcity of respect for one another, endurance and faithfulness. The study concludes that (i) households need to think of alternative ways of generating income, given its relevance in enabling households to meet their daily income, (ii) education policies and other stakeholders need to provide more support for community members to pursue higher levels of education, (iii) more civic education to create awareness on the importance of participating in leadership and politics, and (iv) a need by religious sects to continue with more teachings on respect for one another, endurance and faithfulness in the community surrounding Gulu University.
The Dynamics of Post-Conflict Reintegration: Experience from Gulu, Jigjiga, and Jos Cities
(Springer Nature, 2025-11-21) Tufa, Amenu Asebe,; Oriangi, George,; Acaci,Davidson
Various forms of conflict and displacement are increasingly shaping urban Africa. Although many studies have focused on the causes and consequences of conflicts, little is known about the urban conflict resilience and re-integration of conflict induced displacements. Situated within the expanding literature on urban peace building, this article explores how people reintegrate and manage the uncertainties caused by conflicts in the urban Africa. Using a qualitative method, it comparatively studied three cities: Jigjiga in Ethiopia, Gulu in Uganda, and Jos in Nigeria. The results show that amidst the emerging urbanization of violence, various forms of social capital play a critical role in mitigating the uncertainty caused by violence and displacement. Religious capital, residence-based, clan and ethnic networks facilitated the integration of migrants, IDPs and refugees and supported them to reintegrate and reclaim lost properties and places faster. Women and youth led vigilantism efforts that served as informal governance mechanisms and community watchdogs have been part of the key tool for the governance of urban conflict. The study shows the growing urbanisation of humanitarian and community-based association following the urbanising conflicts. Although formal government institutions contribute, affected populations tend to place greater trust in their social networks during times of crisis to survive or reintegrate. But some of the existing social capital operated within homogenous groups, fostering bonding rather than bridging across religious and ethnic divides. This led to increased segregation and heightened mistrust among urban residents.
ASSESSMENT OF POPULATION DYNAMICS AND FOREST COVER CHANGE IN YUMBE DISTRICT, UGANDA
(African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and development, 2023-05) Alule,RJ; Nuwategeka, E; Oriangi,G
Sub-Saharan Africa is well endowed with both renewable and non-renewable natural resources critical in supporting several forms of development on the continent. Key among these is natural forest resources. However, the population explosion in sub-Saharan Africa in general and Uganda, in particular, is threatening the survival of these forests due to the associated increasing demand or food, fodder, energy, and land for settlement. The study was conducted in Yumbe district where the forests considered included woodland and bushland since tropical high forests have been depleted or degraded by human activities. We used a predictive model to map future forest cover loss amidst the rapidly increasing population in Yumbe district in Uganda. Specifically, the study analyzed the relationship between population dynamics and forest cover change to predict future forest cover changes. To analyze changes in forest cover, the study utilized Landsat satellite imagery for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021; while the population data for the respective years was obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). To explain the role of anthropogenic forces on forest cover change, the study considered different land use types as explanatory variables: planted forests, subsistence farmland, built-up areas, and other land use types. It then explored the interactions between these variables and forest cover change in the study area. Population-forest cover change model was developed to evaluate three decades of population and trends of forest cover to predict forest cover for 2032. The results indicate that in the three decades, the population increased by more than sixfold, and land area under subsistence agriculture, a proxy of population increased by 195.2%, but the forest cover declined by 80.3%. It is predicted that the forest cover will be lost completely by 2032 when the population reaches an estimated 838,078 from the current 657,430 people. This study, therefore, recommends that off-land employment opportunities such as tourism, apiary, transport, and manufacturing industries should be expanded in order to save forest resources from spatially extensive agricultural land uses.
Modelling Transformation of Communities by Public Universities in Post Conflict Northern Uganda Using Economic and Demographic factors
(EAST AFRICAN NATURE & SCIENCE ORGANIZATION, 2024-07-02) Adebua,Asaf; Oriangi,George; Abola,Benard; Amone,Charles; Ezati,Betty Akullu
Scarcity of knowledge exists on how economic and demographic factors of surrounding communities influence the capacity of universities to transformthem. This study examines the dimensions that contribute to community transformation in the context of the community surrounding Gulu University in post-conflict northern Uganda and the economic and demographic factors of the surrounding community that influence their transformation by Gulu University. The study employed a cross-sectional research design with a sampleof 390 households. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect dataon household economic and demographic factors and data on dimensions ofcommunity transformation. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used todetermine the contributions of the dimensions of community transformation, while logistic regression model was employed to determine economic and demographic factors that influence community transformation by Gulu University. The independent variables tested in the economic and demographic categories included age, gender, household size, occupation, alternative income, savings, credit, remittances, and education, while transformation formed the dependent variable. Findings revealed that the economic, physical, political and spiritual dimensions contribute more to the transformation of the community surrounding Gulu University, while the economic and demographic factors that had a significant influence on community transformation included occupation in civil service, business, and commercial farming (P=.004); and thelevel of education (P=0.044). The study concludes that the economic, physical, political and spiritual dimensions with their associated variables contributed more to community transformation. These can be used by other related studies to measure community transformation by universities in the context of developing countries. Furthermore, policies need to focus more on supporting the improvement of the business environment to promote commercial farming and university education since they have a higher multiplier effect on community transformation. Consequently, community members need to focus on business, harness commercial farming and achieve university level of education.
Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and the perceived effectiveness of adaptation practices in Kitgum District, northern Uganda
(African Geographical Review, 2025-12-17) Adoch, Betty; Oriangi, George; Mfitumukiza, David; Twinomuhangi, Rvocatus
Climate change continues to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers, given their dependence on rain-fed agriculture and con strained adaptive capacity. This paper examines the smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and the perceived effective ness of adaptation practices. Data were collected from a sample of 349 respondents using a structured survey questionnaire. Purposive sampling was used to select participants for key infor mant interviews and focus group discussions. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, multinomial logistic regression, and Friedman test, while thematic-content analysis was used to analyze qualitative data. All households were aware of climate change, mainly perceived as a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperature over the past 30 years. Households with livestock production perceived a decrease in rainfall (p <0.000), and the age group ranging from 35 to 44 years perceived increase in temperatures (p < 0.036). Majority (95%) of the respondents reported planting drought-resistant varieties and using improved seeds (87%). Four paired adaptation practices were statistically significant (p <0.000) and perceived to be effective by households. The study recommends climate awareness programs through tar geted climate education and awareness campaigns for younger farmers and women to bridge perception gaps and enhance effec tive adaptation practices.
Medium Term Climate Change Effects on Millet Yields in Gulu District, Northern Uganda
(African Journal of Climate Change and Resource Sustainability, 2024-05-12) Oriangi George; Bamutaze Yazidhi; Mukwaya Paul Isolo; Edekebon Elaijah
Climate change is expected to adversely affect crop yields and livelihoods of agro-dependent societies, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there remain gaps on the effects of expected regional climatic changes onkey food security crops. This study assessed the projected climatic conditions and expected changes in millet yields for Paicho Sub County(S/C) in Gulu District up to the year 2033 using a cross sectional study design. To determine future climatic conditions, PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used based on projected conditions at a 50 km spatial resolution while millet yields were modelled using Penman Grindley soil moisture balance model. PRECIS projected changes for 2033 reveal a strong and significant decrease in rainfall (p<0.05). This is likely to decrease millet yields by 2.6%belowthe average current yields of 1.8 tons per hectare per year under business-as-usual scenario. The finding indicates a need for improved millet varieties that can survive under changed climatic conditions.
Modelling Academic Performance in Science-Based Subjects in Primary Schools Using Elements of Teacher Preparation in Uganda
(EAST AFRICAN NATURE & SCIENCE ORGANIZATION, 2023-05-16) Wafula,Alfred; Oriangi,George; Odama,; Ofoyuru,Denis Thadeus; Ogwang,Henry; Ologe,Daniel Ochieng
Low academic performance in science subjects has continued to characterise primary education in sub–Saharan Africa, despite several interventions by stakeholders. This study investigated the influence of teachers’ preparation for teaching and learning on pupils’ academic performance in mathematics and integrated science in Kigumba town council in Uganda. It used a cross-sectional survey design with a sample size of 180 teachers and pupils from both government-aided and privately funded schools. Interviews were used to collect data. Descriptive statistics was used to determine teachers’ level of preparation for teaching and learners’ level of academic performance, while a regression model was used to establish the influence of teacher’s preparation on pupils’ academic performance. Findings indicate that teachers’ level of preparation was generally good and significantly (P<0.05) influenced by their teaching experience and access to insurance. Furthermore, academic performance in mathematics and integrated science was significantly influenced by teacher preparation (P<0.05) arising from lesson planning, updating learners’ discipline records, and creativity. In conclusion, teachers need to continue being creative, planning lessons on a daily basis, and updating learners’ discipline records in order to improve pupil performance. In turn, the government needs to provide teachers with insurance coverage, e.g., health insurance, in order to free more of their time for lesson preparation. The study informs education and economic planning policies.
Modelling Academic Performance in Science-Based Subjects in Primary Schools in Uganda
(EAST AFRICAN NATURE & SCIENCE ORGANIZATION, 2023) Wafula, Alfred; Oriangi,George; Odama,Stephene; Ologe,Daniel Ochieng
Poor academic performance in science subjects continues to be a major setback in schools of developing countries, despite several interventions to curb the vice. This study investigated the trend in academic performance in mathematics and integrated science in Kigumba town council in Kiryandongo district in Uganda. It used a retrospective cohort analysis design of 8 government-aided and privately funded primary schools while employing documentary analysis to obtain primary leaving examinations (PLE) results. PLE data obtained using documentary analysis was subjected to trend analysis to determine trends in pupils’ performance in the last decade. The findings indicate that performance in mathematics and integrated science in private schools was better than that in government schools over the last decade. In conclusion, teachers in Ugandan government primary schools need to be more committed to teaching mathematics and integrated science so as to improve the academic performance of pupils. In turn, the government and other stakeholders need to provide the necessary prerequisites to enable the teachers to do their work effectively.
Variabilities and Trends of Rainfall, Temperature, and River Flow in Sipi Sub-Catchment on the Slopes of Mt. Elgon, Uganda
(water, 2021-06-30) Luwa,Justine Kilama; Majaliwa,Jackson Gilbert Mwajalolo; Bamutaze,Yazidhi; Kabenge,Isa Pilesjo; Oriangi, George; Mukengere,Espoir Bagula
The variabilities in rainfall and temperature in a catchment affect water availability and sustainability. This study assessed the variabilities in rainfall and temperature (1981–2015) and river flow (1998–2015) in the Sipi sub-catchment on annual and seasonal scales. Observed daily rainfall and temperature data for Buginyanya and Kapchorwa weather stations were obtained from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), while the daily river-flow data for Sipi were obtained from the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE). The study used descriptive statistics, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Mann Kendall trend analysis, and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicate a high coefficient of variation (CV) (CV > 30) for August, September, October, and November (ASON) seasonal rainfall, while annual rainfall had a moderate coefficient of variation (20 ˂ CV ˂ 30). The trend analysis shows that ASON minimum and mean temperatures increased at α = 0.001 and α = 0.05 levels of significance, respectively in both stations and over the entire catchment. Furthermore, the annual and March, April, and May (MAM) river increased at an α = 0.05 level of significance. A total of 14 extremely wet and dry events occurred in the sub-catchment during the post-2000 period, as compared to five in the pre-2000. The significantly increased trend of river flow could be attributed to the impacts of climate and land-use changes. Therefore, future studies may need to quantify the impacts of future climate and land-use changes on water resources in the sub-catchment. may need to quantify the impacts of future climate and land use changes on water resources in the sub-catchment
Exploring variation in adaptation levels to climate extremes among farmers of the Kyoga Agro ecological zone in Uganda using a cross sectional design
(BMC Environmental Science, 2024-01-14) Oketch,chombo; Mukwaya,Paul Isolo; Orianga,George; Kisira,Yeeko
Background Adaptation to climate change among smallholder farmers is a paramount step in achieving sustainable livelihoods in line with SDG 1, 2 and 13 since these communities face significant challenges due climate extremes which impacts on impacts on their only means of livelihood. Determining the levels in adaptation is crucial in under standing the socio-economics of the impact of climate change in the rural communities. The study investigated adap tation levels and determinants among smallholder farmers in the Kyoga Agro-ecology of Uganda. Methods A quantitative cross-sectional survey involving 384 face-to-face household interviews using structured questionnaires was conducted. Farmers, selected based on climate change awareness, were targeted to respond to their reported adaptation levels. Descriptive statistics analyzed adaptation levels among smallholder farmers of various socioeconomic characteristics across different subzones. A Multinomial Logistic (MNL) model examined the determinants of variation in adaptation levels. Results Majority of the respondents, 85.9% in the BCMS and 93.8% in the TS sub zone observed that indeed climate change is occurring. Female farmers in the TS subzone were significantly less likely to adopt 3–4 (p < 0.01) or 5–7 (p < 0.01) adaptation strategies compared to the base category (1–2 strategies), while the relationship in the BCMS subzone was negative but not significant. Male farmers consistently demonstrated greater capacity to adopt higher levels of adaptation strategies. Annual income was positively and significantly related to adoption of 3—4 (P < z = 0.70) and 5—7 (P < z = 0.013). Also Education was positively and significantly associated with adopting 5–7 adaptation strategies in both the TS and BCMS subzones compared to the base category (1–2 strategies). Primary education showed significance at P < z = 0.05 in TS (P < z = 0.018) and BCMS (P < z = 0.03), while secondary education was also significant in TS (P < z = 0.052) and BCMS (P < z = 0.014). Essential support, particularly for female farmers, is crucial to bridge the gender gap. Conclusion The findings are pivotal for informing the formulation of inclusive adaptation strategies among farmers in various subzones. We recommend that the ongoing reforms in the National Adaptation Plans of Uganda and inter national development frameworks in line with climate adaptation consider socio-economic disparities among famers

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